President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has indicated a willingness to negotiate a cease-fire in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, despite his public declarations of confidence and determination to achieve Russia’s war goals. While addressing his generals on Tuesday, Putin boasted about the success of Russia’s invasion, stating that the troops were doing “what we want” and emphasizing that Russia would not give up its objectives.
However, behind the scenes, Putin has been engaging in back-channel diplomacy, signaling through intermediaries since at least September that he is open to a cease-fire that would freeze the fighting along the current lines. This revelation comes from two former senior Russian officials close to the Kremlin and American and international officials who have received messages from Putin’s envoys.
Interestingly, this is not the first time Putin has explored the possibility of a cease-fire. According to American officials, a quiet overture was made in the fall of 2022, following Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive that routed Russia’s army in the country’s northeast. At that time, Putin reportedly expressed satisfaction with the captured territory and indicated a readiness for an armistice.
The New York Times, citing interviews with Russians who have known Putin for an extended period and international officials familiar with the Kremlin’s inner workings, describes the Russian leader as a strategist maneuvering to reduce risks and keep his options open in the face of a war that has lasted longer than anticipated. Despite his public bravado, Putin appears to be privately signaling a desire to declare victory and bring an end to the conflict.
However, former Russian officials caution that Putin’s stance could change if Russian forces regain momentum on the battlefield. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has vowed not to enter negotiations with Russia as long as Putin remains in power.
The Biden administration reportedly encouraged Ukraine to signal openness to negotiations with Russia in November 2022, as reported by The Washington Post. Nevertheless, a year later, in November 2023, Zelensky reiterated that he was not ready for talks unless Russia withdrew its troops from Ukraine.
Putin’s initial goal when sending troops into Ukraine in February 2022 was to capture Kyiv and force a change in its leadership, a plan that was thwarted by strategic mistakes and Ukraine’s resilient defense of the capital. Despite claiming to have annexed several Ukrainian regions, Russia has not fully controlled any of them, and its invasion goals were scaled back.
Many in the West are skeptical of a cease-fire, fearing that Putin may use the opportunity to rearm for a future assault. President Edgars Rinkevics of Latvia emphasized that Putin’s commitment to war stems from his dream of “re-establishing the empire,” and he expressed doubt about Russia honoring any agreements.
As the complex geopolitical situation unfolds, American officials stress the importance of Ukraine demonstrating its staying power, and the United States showing a commitment to supporting Ukraine to challenge Putin’s confidence and potentially secure concessions in negotiations.
